Tuesday 30 November 2010

There is blood...Europe Government Bond Market getting whacked this morning


Linderhof Castle, Atlas statue, Upper Bavaria, Bavaria.

Looks more and more that Germany is the European Atlas supporting all of Europe...

Just four days earlier I wrote there will be blood. I was expecting additional pressure in the Government bond market. We have it. The bond vigilantes are clearly not satisfied with the politicians answer to the crisis. The Irish solution is clearly not enough to calm the market. The EFSF is a weak structure as well, please look at the previous post "The European Vortex" for more details.

Spreads of European Government debt versus Germany:

Versus the 10 Year German Bund:
France: 49 +7 bps wider
Belgium: 117 +20 bps wider
Spain: 273 +29
Italy: 190 +27
Portugal: 432 +14
Ireland: 653 +13
Greece: 891 no change

Versus the 5 Year German BOBL:
France: 34 +4 bps wider
Belgium: 114 +23 bps wider
Spain: 288 +32 bps wider
Italy: 190 +30 bps wider
Portugal: 420 +14 bps wider
Ireland: 673 +15 bps wider
Greece: 1046 -1 bps tighter

Versus the 2 Year German Schatz:
France: 21 +3 bps wider
Belgium: 80 +19 bps wider
Spain: 290 +32 bps wider
Italy: 193 +38 bps wider
Portugal: 398 +14 bps wider
Ireland: 564 -13 bps tighter
Greece: 1140 -4 bps tighter

New records at wider levels for:
2 year Spanish at 290 bps ,
2 year Belgium at 80 bps
2 year Italien at 193 bps
5 year Spanish at 288 bps ,
5 year Irish at 673 bps
5 year Italian at 190 bps (as I was typing this post, 200 bps was reached)
10 year Spanish at 273 bps
10 year Belgium at 117 bps
10 year Irish at 653 bps
10 year Italian at 190 bps

Only sellers apparently this morning...

Bid by appointment only please...

Good news for Germany, German unemployment level is at its lowest level since December 1992 at 7.5%.
German IFO (business confidence index) reached a record level in November .
Bad news for Germany their high spending neighbors are falling apart.
Euro/USD went below 1.30.

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